The demographic dividend

When a country has a very large share of young people aged 16–30, it is called a youth bulge. It is common in countries at Stage 2.

In India, about 27 per cent of people are under 15, and nearly 65 per cent are of working age.

The median age is the age that splits the population in half: half are younger, half are older. India's median age is 28. Compare:

• Japan 50;
• Italy 48;
• Germany 47;
• China 40;
• USA 39.

This puts India in a very good position. Young people work in factories, offices and farms, or start businesses. More people working means more economic activity.

They also earn and pay taxes, which pay for schools, hospitals, roads and parks.

This chance for growth, from having so many young working people, is called the demographic dividend.

But the chapter calls it 'a limited window of opportunity', and the dates are already known:

• the number of children under 5 peaked in 2007;
• the number under 15 peaked in 2011;
• after 2050, India will start moving towards an older population.

This is already visible in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, compared with Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

An ageing country faces pressure:

• more old people who need care;
• fewer workers to replace those who retire;
• fewer young taxpayers to pay for pensions (regular payments from the government to people past retirement age) and services.

Japan has responded by raising the retirement age, and by using technology, automation, robots and AI assistants to help care for older people.

Old people are not only a cost. In the Indian idea of āśhrama dharma, life has four stages: brahmacharya, gṛihasthāśhrama, vānaprastha and sannyāsa. Older people step back from work but still share knowledge and wisdom, and guide rituals and storytelling.

For India, the task is to use the dividend while it lasts, by investing in:

• good education;
• skills training;
• healthcare.

And by helping women work. Many women face a 'double burden': a job plus housework and family care. Childcare facilities and supportive families can lift that burden.

Young people become a dividend only with schooling, skills and health. Without them, the same numbers could become a burden.