Population and the structure of growth

Population (Table 8.1):

Pakistan's population is growing fastest (1.96 per cent a year), while China's has begun to fall. China's strict one-child norm, introduced in the late 1970s, slowed its population growth. But it also had serious side effects: a lower sex ratio (fewer girls than boys) and, in time, an ageing population, with fewer young workers to support many old people.

Growth of GDP (Table 8.2): in the 1980s, China grew fastest (about 10.3 per cent a year), followed by Pakistan (6.3) and India (5.7). By 2024, the picture had changed: India 6.5, China 5.0, Pakistan 3.1.

Structure of the economy (Table 8.3): China followed the classic path, from agriculture to industry (manufacturing), and then to services. India and Pakistan jumped more directly from agriculture to services, without a strong manufacturing stage. As a result, India still has about 43 per cent of its workers in agriculture, but they produce only about 18 per cent of its output (GVA). Too many people share too small an income.

Where people work tells you where growth comes from.