India's population: growth and age

India's population was 121 crore in 2011, the second largest in the world.

Its growth followed the demographic transition:

• Until 1951, growth was modest. In 1911–21 it was even negative, because the influenza epidemic of 1918–19 killed millions.
• After 1921, death rates fell, thanks to control of epidemics, better medicine, and the ending of great famines. The economist Amartya Sen showed that famines are often caused not by a lack of food but by a 'failure of entitlements': poor people losing the means to buy food.
• Birth rates fell much more slowly. So growth peaked at about 2.2 per cent a year in 1961–81.

Fertility now differs greatly between states. In 2016, the TFR was about 1.7 in the southern states and some northern ones (below replacement level), but 3.3 in Bihar and 3.1 in Uttar Pradesh.

Age structure: India is a young country, but it is ageing. The share of children under 15 fell from 42 per cent (1971) to 29 per cent (2011), while the share of people over 60 is rising. The population pyramid now bulges in the working ages.

This creates the chance of a demographic dividend: many young workers supporting relatively few dependents. But it is not automatic. Young people must be educated and healthy, and there must be jobs for them. Otherwise, a young population means mass unemployment.

Worryingly, employment growth for young men fell sharply between 1994 and 2004. A young population is a chance, not a guarantee.