The fashion cycle

Fashion moves in a cycle. It is drawn as a bell-shaped curve: sales (up the side) against time (along the bottom).

The stages:

• Introduction: designers turn research and ideas into new styles by changing line, colour, shape, fabric and details.
• Increase in popularity: more people buy, wear and see the style.
• Peak: demand is so high that manufacturers copy or adapt it at many price levels.
• Decline: mass copies tire fashion-conscious buyers; the style goes to the sale racks.
• Rejection (obsolescence): people turn to new looks, and a new cycle begins.

Think of a new sleeve style. First a few designers show it; then film stars and shops pick it up; soon it is in every market at every price; then people get bored, and it is sold at a discount; then something new takes its place.

Knowing the cycle helps a merchandiser decide when to buy a style, and when to stop. Rise, peak, fall: then something new.